NASS lowers U.S. corn yield; 2026 production forecast at 15.8 billion bushels

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported a September 1 forecast for corn yield of 178.5 bushels per acre and production of 15,800,000,000 bushels. Anthony Krillman, who presented the crop production briefing, said the yield is “down 1% or 2.2 bushels from last month's forecast and down 4.3 or 8 bushels from the previous year,” and attributed the reduction primarily to August weather conditions in the Western Corn Belt.

Krillman detailed acreage adjustments tied to administrative data: planted acreage was revised up by 47,000 acres to about 96,800,000, while harvested area for grain is forecast at 88,500,000 acres. He noted state-level declines in yield projections in the Dakotas and other western areas, with record-high state forecasts flagged for Arkansas, Iowa, Mississippi and Tennessee. NASS compared the forecast to industry estimates and found the 15.8 billion-bushel forecast “falls within the range of expectations,” suggesting limited market surprise.