WASDE: Global wheat up on Australia; India's rice production cut after weak monsoon

Dr. Mark Jekanowski said global wheat production increased by about 3,000,000 tons in the WASDE update, driven largely by upward revisions for Australia. He described El Niño correlations with precipitation patterns and said timely rains and strong satellite vegetative-health signals in many Australian growing areas led to an 11% rise in the Australian wheat forecast and larger increases for barley and canola/rapeseed.

On rice, Jekanowski said India’s poor monsoon reduced its production estimate by 3,000,000 tons this month — a potential first decline in about a decade — but noted that new data showed India’s beginning stocks were higher than expected, so exports were not reduced. He also reported trade reductions for Cambodia and other minor month-to-month alignment changes across global rice trade.