Consultants present 20-year economic-opportunities analysis options for Jacksonville

Consultants leading Jacksonville’s urban growth boundary review presented the Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) framework and two baseline forecasting approaches to the city’s Citizen Advisory Committee on Sept. 6. Bridal Buckley of Johnson Economics said the EOA translates projected job growth over a 20-year horizon into the types of real estate and acreage the city may need.

“The EOA looks at 20 year period, trying to come up with job growth projections for that amount of time, translate that into the type of real estate and land need you might have,” Bridal Buckley said. She told the committee an Oregon Employment Department submarket forecast suggests about 0.8% annual growth for the region — approximately 220 new jobs for Jacksonville over 20 years — while Portland State University population-based forecasts imply roughly 0.3% annual growth, or about 80 new jobs over the same period.

Buckley said the team will produce an adjusted forecast that can reflect the CAC’s economic-development goals and any target industries the community wants to prioritize. The EOA work will be combined with a buildable lands inventory and used to inform updates to Jacksonville’s comprehensive plan economic chapter.

The consultants emphasized that the EOA can be aspirational: the adjusted forecast will allow the city to reflect local objectives, such as encouraging growth in specific sectors, rather than strictly relying on either state forecast as final. The team plans to circulate a revised draft of the analysis and a proposed economic-vision statement for CAC review before the next meeting.