Independent consultant advises conservative TIF range and guardrails for Palm Riverview project

An independent TIF analyst, Joe Gromacki of TIF Staff LLC, presented the advisory board with a scenario analysis of the Palm Riverview increment rebate request. Using conservative inputs — including a static/decreasing millage path, a 95% capture assumption, and attention to assessed vs. fair market value — Gromacki estimated a realistic upper bound of roughly $11.8 million of TIF capture but suggested a safer, negotiable range between about $7.27 million and $9.1 million to preserve CRA residual funds for other redevelopment needs.

Gromacki identified key sensitivity points: the millage rate assumption (he used conservative declines in some scenarios), the omission of a fair market value appraisal in the developer's materials, and the higher soft costs associated with HUD D4 financing that increase required equity and contingency. He also recommended that future applicants provide IRR at reversion scenarios and clarified that HUD‑related financing often carries penalties for early sale prior to year 11, which affects long‑term returns and CRA risk exposure.