County joins SwiftMud real-time flood-forecasting project for Brooker Creek and Lake Tarpon watersheds

Jill Silverboard, the county administrator (county administration), explained a proposed agreement to participate in SwiftMud's updated predictive modeling for flood forecasting focused on Brooker Creek, Lake Tarpon and the South Creek watershed. Silverboard said the county has used older FEMA data and needs updated, real-time predictive capabilities following 2024 storm events.

"It's for predictive forecasting," Silverboard said, describing the project's use of updated accumulation, creek and lake gauge data to produce real-time forecasts. She said the county's match is $300,000 (from the surface water utility) and that the project is part of an iterative process that updates models with recent storm event data; Silverboard noted FEMA's most recent maps dated to 2016 and that local models must reflect 2024 conditions.

Commissioner Shear questioned whether the county's existing models were insufficient and whether $600,000 in project costs (with a $300,000 county match) was warranted. Silverboard responded the county has participated with SwiftMud for decades and stressed the need to keep models current because flooding patterns have changed and real-time forecasting can show areas at risk that earlier models did not capture. Commissioners asked for an informational work session on how FEMA and county models compare; staff agreed to schedule an update for the board.