Wyoming state engineer warns of statewide drought, details Colorado River risks

Brandon Gebhardt, Wyoming state engineer, opened his briefing to the Select Water Committee by saying the statewide hydrology picture is grim: "The entire state is under some classification of drought," and over 83% of Wyoming is in severe or extreme drought. He told legislators that some drainages are on pace to match or exceed the very low 2002 benchmark.

Gebhardt walked the committee basin by basin. On the North Platte he explained allocation triggers tied to forecasted inflow below 1,100,000 acre-feet and the calling-rights sequence (Pathfinder, Guernsey, Inland Lakes) used to administer shortages. He said the irrigation-season cap is 6,600 acre-feet per two-week period and reported the highest recent two-week use at 5,366 acre-feet — below the cap — so far sparing many users from curtailment.

Turning to the Colorado River system, Gebhardt described basin-wide shortfalls: snowpack was about 58% of average and inflow projections for Lake Powell were very low. "Lake Powell is at 23% of full," he said, and noted that the reservoir’s critical elevation leaves only about 1,700,000 acre-feet available for release. He said Lake Mead is roughly 27% full and that Lower Basin delivery entitlements may exceed projected 10-year flows at Lee Ferry, creating shortages relative to Compact allocations.

Gebhardt summarized federal planning steps intended to manage that risk: the Bureau of Reclamation’s FEIS establishes an adaptive, multi-year decision framework and an expected Record of Decision will set federal direction and two-year operating guidelines for 2027–28. He also described a planned additional release from Flaming Gorge in the 2026–27 period and warned of local impacts: several Wyoming boat ramps (Anvil Draw, Firehole, Brynagare Crossing) would become inaccessible under the projected elevations.

Why it matters: these conditions affect irrigation, municipal and industrial water supplies, interstate obligations, recreational access and the timing of policy and funding choices at state and federal levels. Gebhardt recommended continued intra- and interstate coordination, voluntary conservation programs, and use of storage and temporary agreements to reduce near-term user impacts.

The state engineer answered committee questions on public reception of a voluntary conservation program, possible out-of-basin transfer moratoriums, litigation risk following the FEIS, and agency resource needs. He said the voluntary program is being developed with advisory and public meetings and that Wyoming will pursue consensus with other basin states to avoid harmful litigation.