Consultants say Jacksonville faces 20-year housing shortfall: state forecast 406 units, UGB capacity about 130

City of Jacksonville consultants told the Citizen Advisory Committee on July 23 that a new state housing forecast expects the city will need 406 housing units over the next 20 years, a number that significantly exceeds the roughly 130 units the city's buildable lands inventory finds can be accommodated inside the current urban growth boundary.

"They forecast the needed housing of 406 units over the next 20 years," said Brendon Buckley, an economist with Johnson Economics. Jessa Miller of MIG summarized the land inventory findings: "there are 128 vacant, partially vacant, or potentially redevelopable residential sites available in the city, totaling approximately 118 acres of developable residential land...which results in capacity for roughly 130 additional residential units within Jacksonville's UGB." These figures were presented to the committee to start planning whether to rely on zoning changes or consider UGB expansion.

The consultants said the state methodology (the Oregon Housing Needs Analysis) provides an allocation by income groups and housing types; it does not itself require the city to build housing but does identify how much land would be needed for different types of units. Consultants and staff told the committee that typical local responses include examining whether existing zoning can be made more efficient (for example, allowing slightly higher densities in some low-density zones) before pursuing UGB amendments.

Committee members noted the mismatch between forecast and capacity and pressed for clarity on next steps. The consultants said they will finalize the BLI and housing needs allocation, explore land-use efficiency measures that might increase capacity inside the UGB, and then, if gaps remain, evaluate candidate areas outside the UGB as part of a coordinated process with county and state agencies.