Traffic and revenue study lays out four toll scenarios, assumes pre‑completion tolling in 2028

The Stantec team presented the level‑3 traffic and revenue (TNR) analysis that will support toll‑rate setting and financing for the Interstate Bridge Replacement.

Liz Horta, who led the study for Stantec, said the analysis used updated traffic counts, floating car travel‑time runs, origin‑destination data and a stated preference survey administered in April 2025. The level‑3 forecast provides annual toll, traffic and net‑revenue estimates to support formal toll policy adoption and credit‑rating reviews. The study modeled four toll scenarios the commissions advanced in October 2024; pre‑completion tolls in those scenarios range roughly from $1.55 on the low end to about $3–$4 in higher scenarios, with truck multipliers and weekend tiering differing by scenario.

Horta said the current assumptions set pre‑completion tolling to begin 07/01/2028 (start of FY 2029) and post‑completion tolling when the new bridge opens on 07/01/2035 (start of FY 2036), and that overnight hours (11 p.m.–5 a.m.) would be toll‑free during the pre‑completion period. All scenarios include a 50% low‑income discount (eligibility at 200% of the federal poverty line, with registration required) though the timing for implementing that discount varies across scenarios. Horta noted the four scenarios produce similar long‑run traffic and revenue lines as escalation and behavioral responses cause convergence over time.