Planning advisory committee recommends CCRPC Board adopt population and employment forecasts, urges clearer municipal messaging

Jon Slason of consulting firm RSG presented updated population and employment forecasts to the Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission's Planning Advisory Committee on July 8, recommending the Board adopt the forecasts while staff prepare explanatory materials for municipalities.

Slason described the V2.1 population forecast as a continuation of a Legislature-adopted consensus forecast through 2036 and then forward to 2050. He said the forecast does not incorporate exogenous policy interventions and projects roughly 653,000 people statewide by 2050. For Chittenden County, the business-as-usual projection shows about 12,000 additional residents by 2050; a policy-response scenario tied to the state's mid-range housing targets could add more than 50,000 residents to the county by mid-century if housing targets are achieved and household-size trends reverse.

Committee members pressed Slason on data choices. "Why was ACS 2022 used as the baseline year?" asked Chair Paul Conner; Slason said the year was chosen to provide context rather than as a rigorous methodological anchor. Chris Shaheen asked whether the forecasted figures refer to jobs or to employed people; Slason confirmed the employment forecast reports numbers of jobs. Slason also acknowledged that some demand indicators, such as adults living with parents who are seeking housing, were not available for inclusion.

Several members voiced concern that municipalities could misinterpret the difference between the business-as-usual forecast and the policy-response scenario. "Communities may use the difference between the forecast and the housing targets to undermine planning policy goals," Aaron DeNamur said. Staff agreed to prepare a short explanatory document for municipalities and the CCRPC Board that would clarify the intended use of each scenario and the assumptions behind V2.1.

On formal action, DeNamur moved that the CCRPC Board be recommended to adopt RSG's population and household forecast with the caveat that Essex and Essex Junction data be corrected if needed and that staff provide context from the PAC discussion; Chris Yuen seconded. The motion passed unanimously. The committee then heard Slason's employment forecast (using covered employment to align with state metrics) and voted unanimously to recommend the Board adopt that forecast as well, with the same caveat about Essex and Essex Junction data.

The forecasts will be used in updating the regional transportation demand model and in the 2026 ECOS Plan. Committee members asked staff to ensure municipal staff and selectboards receive clear explanatory materials about the difference between the forecasts and the policy-response scenario. The CCRPC Board will consider the committee's recommendations at a future meeting.