Aspen projects near‑flat 2026 revenue; airport closure to temper 2027 growth, staff says

City finance staff presented a cautious revenue outlook at the Aspen City Council work session on July 13, saying the city expects roughly flat growth in 2026 but is preparing for a possible slowdown in 2027 tied to a planned airport closure.

"In 2026, we're looking at a 0.09% growth," Tyler Sexton, Aspen's finance director, told council, citing year‑to‑date taxable sales that are about 4% below last year through April. Sexton said accommodations and paid occupancy have softened — he cited ACRA reporting showing paid occupancy down about 15.3% — and noted a one‑time $13 million reporting correction that, if excluded, would reduce the year‑to‑date decline to roughly 1.8%.

The finance presentation broke the city's 2.7% local sales tax into planned 2027 allocations: parks and open space (roughly $22 million), a transportation set‑aside (about $2.2 million), Kids First (about $5.3 million), a housing development fund (about $1.3 million), and the public education fund (about $8.7 million). Sexton estimated county shared sales receipts at about $20 million, yielding a combined projection near $59.5 million for the year.

Sexton also described the city's investment portfolio — about $471 million invested at a roughly 3.68% yield — and said staff has shifted toward short‑term instruments to preserve liquidity for large capital needs such as the armory and lumberyard projects. "We do expect that to drop significantly into 2027," he said of invested balances.

Deputy Finance Director Andrew Kramer outlined FY2027 assumptions and called out the planned airport closure from April 4 to Nov. 19 as the primary near‑term risk to lodging and visitor‑driven revenues. Kramer said the city considered survey data and capacity changes — notable hotel closures (the Gant and the Little Nell, roughly 230 beds offline) and the White Elephant adding about 54 beds — and pointed to increased United Airlines service to Eagle as partial mitigation.

Council members urged staff to model downside scenarios. "I think we need to stress test this and figure out what we're going to do if we got it wrong," Council member Bill said, asking staff to run 10%, 15% and 20% declines in taxable sales and identify where contingency funds would come from. Sexton and Kramer said existing fund balances and reserves give the city capacity to absorb modest swings, but staff agreed to provide formal scenario analyses as the budget process proceeds.

Why it matters: Aspen's revenue mix is highly seasonally weighted and reliant on lodging, tourism and volatile real‑estate transfer taxes; council directed staff to continue scenario planning so the city can identify budget adjustments or reserves to preserve essential services.

Next steps: Finance staff will incorporate stress tests and updated forecasts into forthcoming budget work sessions and return with refined numbers for council consideration.