NVCOG unveils demographic and economic forecast dashboard projecting aging population and household shifts

Tim Nolan, maps and data staff, presented NVCOG’s new Demographic & Economic Forecast (DEF) — a modeling tool and public dashboard that projects population, households, labor force and jobs for all 169 Connecticut municipalities and aggregates to NVCOG and MPO geographies.

Nolan said the model uses publicly available inputs (Census Bureau, American Community Survey, BLS, BEA) and simulates thousands of runs to produce scenario bands. He reported a roughly 13% projected increase in households and housing stock under a middle scenario, coupled with an estimated 13% decline in the regional labor force if current trends hold. The model also shows an aging trend: the share of residents 65 and older rising into the mid‑30% range over coming decades in the middle scenario. Nolan invited members to test the dashboard online, download data, and contact him with questions.

Board members raised concerns about census undercounts and address‑list accuracy. Nolan explained the model relies on ACS adjustments following the 2020 decennial census and that the region has undertaken address verification work; one board member estimated an illustrative fiscal exposure — “about $21,000,000 a year” — if a fuller population count were captured. Nolan said the dashboard and forthcoming methodological documentation can help towns support grant applications and capital planning.

Why it matters: Accurate population, household and labor estimates inform transportation planning, school and housing policy, and grant applications. NVCOG’s public dashboard gives municipalities a shared data resource to support planning decisions.