CCRPC updates population and employment forecasts to 2050 for MTP modeling

Jason Charest, CCRPC transportation planning manager, updated the Transportation Advisory Committee on the agency’s demographic forecast work on July 7, 2026. The CCRPC is updating population, employment and household forecasts (the previous regional forecast was 2017) to support the upcoming Metropolitan Transportation Plan update.

Charest said the draft regional 2050 population figure is 653,000. That regional number is apportioned to counties and municipalities for modeling; the draft assumes about 180,000 people in Chittenden County and adds roughly 12,000 people countywide against current baselines based on municipal housing targets. Employment forecasting anticipates about 8,500 new jobs in the region by 2050.

The forecast is not a directive for local planning but a planning input; Charest emphasized the numbers are for modeling and that the state produces a separate Joint Fiscal Office consensus forecast. The CCRPC’s forecast materials will go to the Planning Advisory Committee on July 8 and to the CCRPC Board on July 15 and again on Sept. 16 for approval.

Sources and provenance: Presentation by Jason Charest at the CCRPC TAC meeting, SEG 101–SEG 114.