Urban Institute tells Connecticut commission nearly half of Americans fall short of 'true cost' to thrive

The Connecticut Working Commission on Children, Seniors, and Economic Opportunity heard a presentation on the Urban Institute’s 2023 True Cost of Economic Security (TCES) on June 29, where researchers said roughly 49% of people nationally lack the resources necessary to be economically secure.

Ilham Dery, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute’s Tax and Income Supports division, explained the TCES pairs catalogued household costs with available resources to estimate what families need to “thrive” rather than merely survive. The measure combines housing (based on HUD fair market rents), food (USDA low‑cost food plan), health insurance premiums and out‑of‑pocket costs, broadband and phone access, transportation, childcare (Department of Labor childcare cost data), taxes (Urban’s Addis microsimulation model), student loan payments (Urban’s Debt in America tool) and a savings target equal to 10% of family costs.

Dery said the 2023 update also incorporated disability caregiving costs for the first time, modeled using state median home health aide hourly rates and two caregiving tiers (about 20 hours and about 40 hours per week). For a family containing an adult with severe personal care limitations, Urban estimates median caregiving costs of about $52,000 annually.

Researchers presented several median TCES thresholds by family type. For one family type shown — working‑age adults with children — the median TCES threshold was about $144,700 in annual resources, compared with median available resources of about $133,000. The Urban team highlighted that 59% of children live in families whose resources fall below the threshold and that families with disabilities and those with children face disproportionately higher needs.

During a question‑and‑answer period, board members pressed the presenters about state‑level detail and timeliness. Dery said state‑level TCES outputs are produced for certain family types (for example, families with children), and that more granular subgroup comparisons for Connecticut are possible but depend on sample size and analytic time. She noted the TCES relies on American Community Survey data, which creates a built‑in lag (the 2023 measure reflects previously released ACS data), but Urban maintains interim indicators such as the American Affordability Tracker and quarterly cost updates for items like gas that can give more current context.

When asked how TCES compares to the federal poverty level, presenter Greg Och said the TCES typically yields a much higher threshold because it explicitly counts a broader set of costs and resources — including the imputed value of owner‑occupied housing — and models debt and detailed health care expenses. The presenters described the measure as complementary to existing poverty metrics and more useful for policy levers tied to specific costs (for example, childcare or health insurance).

The Urban team agreed the TCES will continue to include the disability caregiving category in future updates. They also said the measure shows full‑time work improves resources for many families but is insufficient on its own: over two‑fifths of people in families with a full‑time worker still fall below the TCES threshold.

The board thanked the presenters and requested the slide deck for distribution to members who left early or could not attend the full presentation. The presentation will inform the commission’s fall economic security forum and upcoming policy discussions.