Study warns of multi‑gigawatt shortfall; E3 urges mixed portfolio of resources and new West‑Side capacity
June 17, 2026 | Board Council Commission Agencies , Executive, Washington
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The Energy Facilities Site Evaluation Council heard a technical briefing June 17 from the Public Generating Pool and Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) that warned of a large resource adequacy gap across the Northwest and outlined pathways to preserve reliability while meeting deep decarbonization goals.
Arnie Olson, senior partner at E3, said the study finds a near‑term shortfall of about 9 gigawatts by 2030 and a growing gap of 14–18 gigawatts by 2035 if current trends continue. "That 9 gigawatts is about as much power as the state of Oregon consumes," Olson said, emphasizing the scale of potential new capacity needed.
The study models both near‑term reliability needs and long‑term least‑cost investment portfolios. Olson told the council that the region can meet aggressive clean‑energy targets but that it will require large volumes of new resources: "We're building 63 gigawatts of wind, 62 gigawatts of solar, 31 gigawatts of batteries, and 24 gigawatts of natural gas generation" in the 2045 reference portfolio.
Mary Wienke, executive director of the Public Generating Pool, framed the work as a regional collaboration that followed a January 2024 system strain. She said the sponsoring utilities sought an updated view of where the region stands on resource adequacy.
Council members pressed E3 on key sensitivities. Councilor Aaron Peterson asked whether long‑duration technologies such as iron‑air batteries were included; Olson said emerging long‑duration storage was modeled but that the resource was unattractive in many cases because of poor round‑trip efficiency compared with alternatives. "Those resources are only about 40 to 45% efficient round trip," Olson said, noting that in the Northwest much seasonal storage function is already embedded in hydropower reservoirs.
On the role of natural gas, E3 said some new gas capacity is robust across cases because gas can supply sustained energy during multi‑day cold snaps when hydropower, wind and solar underperform. Olson said models that prohibit gas require dramatically more wind and battery deployments and would raise average rates. "If you don't allow natural gas ... the rates would go up by nearly 6¢ per kilowatt hour," he said in the briefing.
E3 also identified a growing need for delivery capability into the West Side of the Cascades, reflecting where electrification and residential load growth are concentrated. The study's optimization often built both cross‑Cascades transmission and some West‑Side generation to meet that local need.
Council members asked practical questions about siting and permitting. Olson pointed to work in California on streamlining siting processes and said staffing and application fees can be structured to fund permitting capacity. He described the scale of build‑out implied by the study as "extensive," calling for thousands of megawatts per year and large investment levels.
The council agreed to continue technical discussions with E3. Chair Kurt Beckett thanked the presenters and said the council would use the briefing to inform public outreach and future deliberations. The study team invited follow‑up questions and provided materials and contact information for staff and councilors.
The council closed the briefing with plans to continue conversation at related UTC and FSEC events.
Arnie Olson, senior partner at E3, said the study finds a near‑term shortfall of about 9 gigawatts by 2030 and a growing gap of 14–18 gigawatts by 2035 if current trends continue. "That 9 gigawatts is about as much power as the state of Oregon consumes," Olson said, emphasizing the scale of potential new capacity needed.
The study models both near‑term reliability needs and long‑term least‑cost investment portfolios. Olson told the council that the region can meet aggressive clean‑energy targets but that it will require large volumes of new resources: "We're building 63 gigawatts of wind, 62 gigawatts of solar, 31 gigawatts of batteries, and 24 gigawatts of natural gas generation" in the 2045 reference portfolio.
Mary Wienke, executive director of the Public Generating Pool, framed the work as a regional collaboration that followed a January 2024 system strain. She said the sponsoring utilities sought an updated view of where the region stands on resource adequacy.
Council members pressed E3 on key sensitivities. Councilor Aaron Peterson asked whether long‑duration technologies such as iron‑air batteries were included; Olson said emerging long‑duration storage was modeled but that the resource was unattractive in many cases because of poor round‑trip efficiency compared with alternatives. "Those resources are only about 40 to 45% efficient round trip," Olson said, noting that in the Northwest much seasonal storage function is already embedded in hydropower reservoirs.
On the role of natural gas, E3 said some new gas capacity is robust across cases because gas can supply sustained energy during multi‑day cold snaps when hydropower, wind and solar underperform. Olson said models that prohibit gas require dramatically more wind and battery deployments and would raise average rates. "If you don't allow natural gas ... the rates would go up by nearly 6¢ per kilowatt hour," he said in the briefing.
E3 also identified a growing need for delivery capability into the West Side of the Cascades, reflecting where electrification and residential load growth are concentrated. The study's optimization often built both cross‑Cascades transmission and some West‑Side generation to meet that local need.
Council members asked practical questions about siting and permitting. Olson pointed to work in California on streamlining siting processes and said staffing and application fees can be structured to fund permitting capacity. He described the scale of build‑out implied by the study as "extensive," calling for thousands of megawatts per year and large investment levels.
The council agreed to continue technical discussions with E3. Chair Kurt Beckett thanked the presenters and said the council would use the briefing to inform public outreach and future deliberations. The study team invited follow‑up questions and provided materials and contact information for staff and councilors.
The council closed the briefing with plans to continue conversation at related UTC and FSEC events.
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