Lee County officials outline flat-budget plan and warn of deep service cuts under property-tax reform

Chair David Alfin opened the Board of County Commissioners' preliminary revenues and funding workshop and turned the presentation over to county staffer Pete Wettstein, who outlined the budget schedule and initial revenue estimates.

Wettstein told commissioners the county received a preliminary tax-base estimate that showed a 2.94% increase for the general fund and said property-tax growth translates to roughly $16 million for the general fund. “Every percent in the general fund ... equals $5 million,” he said, and cautioned staff typically budgets property-tax revenue at 95% to avoid overstating collections: “We can only budget 95% of property tax revenues,” Wettstein said.

Why it matters: commissioners were reviewing a flat-budget scenario the board directed staff to prepare in February. Wettstein said departments submitted a flat operating budget totaling about $212 million for the coming year and noted some one-time debt savings freed about $15 million for the next two years to cover the medical examiner expense.

Wettstein walked the board through major revenue line items and recent trends, including sales-tax variances after the hurricane and a notable uptick in ambulance-fee collections after a 2023–24 cyberattack and a vendor change. “We are trending anywhere between 30 and 35 million” in ambulance fees, he said, a shift that helped offset other revenue uncertainties.

A central focus of the meeting was the county’s work to model the local impact of a recently passed state property-tax reform measure. Wettstein said initial statewide estimates from the Florida Association of Counties were prorated across Lee County funds to produce an early picture of potential losses. He presented a rough, pro rata example requested by Commissioner Ruane showing hypothetical first-year and second-year reductions in the general fund of about $107 million and $198 million, respectively. Using that blunt allocation, the sheriff’s share (45% of the general fund) would equate to about a $48 million first‑year reduction and nearly $90 million the second year; EMS’s prorated cuts in that illustration were roughly $11 million and $20 million.

Wettstein emphasized the exercise was a simple, department-proportionate illustration rather than a recommended plan, and that staff will produce more refined scenarios when the property appraiser's final tax base is promulgated on July 1.

Timing and public input: commissioners pressed staff on whether the county could produce usable analyses in time for public hearings. The schedule Wettstein presented includes a July 1 final tax roll, a board action to set maximum millages on Aug. 4, an Aug. 19 workshop to review a draft continuation budget combined with legislative policy, a Sept. 1 workshop on tax-reform impacts and a Sept. 3 first public budget hearing, and a Sept. 15 final budget hearing. Several commissioners expressed concern that the Sept. 1 workshop and the Sept. 3 hearing leave a very short window for public review and input; staff offered to release preliminary August materials based on FAC numbers and then refine those figures in September.

Legal and state process: County Attorney Richard told the board the county expects implementing legislation will be required if the amendment passes statewide. “Should it pass in November, it would become effective in January 2027,” Richard said, but he added that substantial legislative rewrites would be necessary and that the next legislative session or a possible special session would likely be occupied with implementation work.

What’s next: Wettstein said staff will revise revenue estimates after the property appraiser’s July 1 numbers and return to the board in August with scenarios for public messaging and more detailed costed examples of services that would be affected if revenue drops materialize. The board adjourned after agreeing to pursue the additional modeling and public‑facing comparisons.

The workshop produced no votes or formal actions; commissioners directed staff to proceed with the sequencing and additional analysis described above.