District reports modest enrollment decline projections, open‑enrollment numbers and cohort trends

District staff presented a multi‑slide enrollment update showing current average Full‑Time Equivalent (FTE) enrollment of approximately 3,821.5 and a planning projection of roughly 3,681 FTE for 2026–27. Staff walked the board through a cohort‑survival analysis that illustrates how differences between graduating seniors and incoming kindergarten cohorts drive year‑to‑year net changes.

Open‑enrollment figures were highlighted: about 177 open‑enrolled students are currently in the district count (including staff children and off‑island applicants). Staff said some grade levels currently register above projections and reminded the board that summer registrations and family moves will affect final numbers; district demographers will update projections if needed.

Board members discussed the statewide context — noting OSPI and statewide kindergarten enrollment trends — and asked for further breakdowns by school level in future reports. Staff said they plan additional analyses and will return with tailored views by school.

Why it matters: Enrollment projections drive state funding levels (FTE), staffing needs and course offerings; accurate summer registration updates can materially affect fall budgeting and staffing decisions.

What’s next: Staff will continue monitoring registrations through the summer, update projections as new data arrive, and present more granular school‑level breakdowns at future meetings.