Consultant tells advisory council: redevelopment likely concentrated on commercial corridors; large-scale change will take years

RKG Associates presented a market-feasibility and rate-of-change analysis at the June 13 Zoning Advisory Council meeting, telling members the proposed MX (mixed-use) zoning has the greatest potential to produce housing over time but that most early change is likely on larger commercial corridors in subareas 3 and 4.

Consultant Kyle Tenti explained the study's method—residual land-value analysis—and said the MX district could produce north of 30,000 units at full theoretical buildout. But under current market conditions, only a minority of parcels within proposed MX boundaries generate sufficient new value to entice acquisition and redevelopment; the analysis estimates an annual rate-of-change on the order of roughly 1,200,600 units per year under an illustrative scenario distributed across multiple projects, concentrated on corridors such as Scott's Addition, the Diamond District and Manchester.

Tenti said the RM (residential multi-unit) district is effectively a preservation zone today: about 8% of parcels are vacant or underutilized and roughly 2% (about 122 parcels citywide) look financially viable for redevelopment under the RM rules. Those parcels could yield on the order of 2,800 units total in the medium term but are unlikely to unlock large volumes without different market drivers or public incentives. The RA (residential attached) district shows modest infill potential (estimated annual yields of roughly 70'100 units), with most opportunities occurring on corner lots, longer lots, or small vacant parcels.

Council members probed assumptions: whether churches and other faith-based parcels had been excluded, and how state legislation that may enable by-right development on some institutional parcels could change results. Staff and RKG agreed to rerun the analysis including places of worship and to post a consolidated report on the Code Refresh page.

Why it matters: The analysis helps the council and the public understand where zoning changes are most likely to produce new housing in the near term, and where additional policy tools (incentives, assembled land strategies, preservation measures) may be needed to meet housing goals. RKG cautioned that even when higher densities are allowed, high construction costs (concrete/steel) and existing land values make very tall buildings unlikely in many locations under current market conditions.

Next steps: RKG will test scenarios that include church parcels and provide a revised document; staff expects to fold the analysis into the Draft 3 package for public posting and for planning-commission review.