NASS June report forecasts U.S. winter wheat production at 1.03 billion bushels, a 26.5% drop from 2025

Lance Honig, chair of the agricultural statistics board at the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), opened a June briefing describing the release protocol and presenters. Anthony Pryleman, acting chief of NASS’s crops branch, presented the June crop production estimates and the survey methods behind them.

Pryleman said U.S. planted winter wheat acres are estimated at 32.4 million, unchanged from the prior estimate but down 2.2% from 2025. He reported harvested acres at just over 22 million — a decline of 13.7% from last year — and said that, if realized, this would be a record low harvested area for the U.S. As of the June 1 survey reference date, NASS’s yield forecast is 46.8 bushels per acre, down 1.7% from the May forecast and down 14.8% from 2025. "Production is forecast at 1.03 billion bushels," Pryleman said, noting that figure is down 1.7% from last month and 26.5% from the previous season.

NASS explained the survey basis for the numbers: the June A operator-reported yield survey (about 2,300 respondents; data collected May 29–June 7) and the objective yield survey of field samples (975 samples processed May 25–June 1 in the 10-state objective-yield region, with phased sampling to expand next month). Pryleman highlighted that 29% of objective-yield samples had been processed so far — ahead of the pace in prior years — and that the June heads-per-square-foot measure (40.5) is weaker than recent years, providing a field-based signal consistent with the reduced yield forecast.

Class breakdowns showed the steepest year-over-year declines in hard red winter wheat (nearly 497 million bushels; down 38.2% from last season and 3.5% from May’s forecast), with soft red and white winter classes also lower year-on-year. Pryleman noted the hard red winter estimate, if realized, would be the lowest since 1957.

NASS also placed the figures in long-run perspective: the agency said the 46.8 bu/acre forecast is the lowest U.S. winter wheat yield since 2015 and that total U.S. winter wheat production, if realized, would be the lowest since 1965.

The presentation included state-by-state yield maps showing pockets of increase (parts of the Ohio Valley, Delta, Southern Plains and some western states) while most states are down from 2025; Michigan was highlighted as recording a state yield high for 2026. Pryleman emphasized that condition ratings coming into the June 1 reference date were weak (26% rated good-to-excellent on May 31 versus 52% a year earlier), which contributed to the downward revisions.

NASS noted the forecast falls within the range of pre-report industry expectations. The agency also flagged upcoming releases — including acreage, grain stocks and rice stocks at the end of June — and scheduled the next crop production report for July 10.

The briefing was informational; no votes or formal actions were taken. For details and the official published estimates, NASS advised referring to the formal released tables.