Global outlook: favorable Black Sea weather lifts foreign wheat supplies; U.S. crop down-revision trims 2026 outlook

Dr. Mark Jakenowski, introduced as chair of the world outlook board, presented global supply and demand updates and integrated the NASS June numbers into world balance sheets.

Jakenowski said global wheat production this month rose about 1 million tons, driven largely by stronger-than-expected winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea region (Russia and Ukraine) where rainfall and vegetative health were described as "nearly ideal." He cautioned that excessive spring moisture in some eastern Russian spring-wheat areas reduced spring planting and that those offsets left winter-wheat gains dominant this month.

The presenter outlined trade revisions that raised exports for Russia, the EU and Ukraine while trimming Australia’s shipments, and he noted modest increases in feed use in Russia associated with the larger crop. Integrating the NASS June wheat numbers, he said the U.S. experienced a May-to-June reduction in estimated wheat production — the first downward May-to-June change since 2014 — and that, combined with large foreign supplies, led to a modest reduction in the 2026–27 U.S. season-average price forecast.

On prices, Jakenowski said current-year (2025–26) average price estimates were nudged up slightly while the 2026–27 season-average farm price forecast was lowered (about $0.50 per bushel) to reflect larger global supplies and recent futures movement.

Jakenowski’s outlook covered related supply/use changes for other grains in the global balance sheet; he emphasized that Black Sea weather and planting progress were the principal drivers of this month’s cross-border revisions.

The presentation concluded with an overview of the U.S. balance sheet implications and a reminder that detailed published tables provide the official record.