Northern Virginia Transportation Authority adopts updated FY30–31 revenue projections and $776 million programming estimate

The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority on June 11 adopted updated FY30–31 revenue projections and approved projected funding availability to guide its upcoming six‑year program.

Council Member Snder, chair of the finance committee, moved to adopt the revenue projections; Chairman McCay seconded and the authority approved the motion unanimously. CFO Michael Longi said the staff analysis used regional pre‑ and post‑pandemic historical data and a statistical regression model with back‑testing. "We are looking at $512 million for fiscal 30 and $527 million for fiscal 31," Longi said, explaining the two‑year estimates used in the update.

The authority then approved the staff’s PIGO calculation — the number staff use to determine how much program funding is available for the two‑year update. Staff presented Table One showing $775.8 million available for programming (discussed in the meeting and rounded to $776 million in conversation). Miss Beckman told the authority the funding requests submitted to NVTA totaled "close to $1.3 billion," underscoring that requests exceed available funds.

Why it matters: the adopted revenue and PIGO estimates frame how staff will prioritize projects in the 2028–2033 six‑year program and determine which candidate projects receive NVTA funding. Staff told the authority they will translate the PIGO number into a staff recommendation and present it to the statutory committees next week before returning a recommended program to the full authority on July 9.

What the authority discussed: council members emphasized the rigor of the revenue modeling and encouraged jurisdiction CFOs to review the estimates. Longi described the modeling steps, including regression analysis and back‑testing against about 10 years of prior collections. During discussion, members asked procedural questions about the table and staff clarified rounding and the difference between raw revenue estimates and the PIGO conversion that accounts for risk adjustments.

Next steps: staff will prepare and publish the recommended program following committee review (PCAC and TSA meet June 17; Planning and Programming Committee meets June 18). Staff said they are required to publish the recommendations at least 15 days before the July 9 authority meeting so jurisdictions and the public have time to review the proposal.

The vote: both the revenue projection motion and the PIGO estimate motion passed by unanimous voice vote.