Bi‑state transportation commissions review traffic, revenue and financing for I‑5 bridge replacement

Commissioners from Oregon and Washington spent their June 5 joint session reviewing a level‑3 traffic‑and‑revenue study and a coordinated financing analysis for the Interstate Bridge Replacement (I‑5 Columbia River) program, and staff told the commissions that tolling is a key component of the funding plan for the program’s first funded phase.

Julie Meredith, secretary of the Washington State Department of Transportation, told the joint meeting that the IBR program is "a critical bi‑state investment" and that tolling will provide bonding capacity and a stable revenue stream to support construction, maintenance and operations. Lisa Sumption, interim director of the Oregon Department of Transportation, echoed the necessity of a phased funding approach and said the project aims to improve seismic resilience and freight reliability.

The program team presented four toll scenarios developed for the level‑3 analysis. Stantec, the consultant leading the traffic and revenue work, summarized assumptions including a pre‑completion tolling start date of July 1, 2028, and a post‑completion start date of July 1, 2035, and said scenarios differ by time‑of‑day steps, truck multipliers, escalation rules and the timing of a proposed 50% low‑income discount. "These are the 4 scenarios that were analyzed," project consultant Liz Horta said, describing weekday peak and weekend tiers used in the study.

Financial analysts showed how potential gross toll revenue is adjusted to net toll revenue after uncollectible tolls, operating and maintenance costs, and administrative expenses. Brent Baker, the program’s financial structures lead, said scenarios 1–3 were designed to yield roughly similar net revenues, and that a higher‑toll scenario (scenario 4) produces higher early‑year nominal revenue. Based on the analysis and the Washington treasurer’s preliminary work, staff said the program could target $1.5 billion in toll funding to help deliver the first funded phase (presented at $5.68 billion).

Washington Deputy State Treasurer Jason Richter and Oregon staff described two principal financing paths: state‑backed bonds (Washington’s "triple pledge" and Oregon toll revenue bonds backed by the state highway fund) and pursuing a TIFIA loan administered by the Federal Highway Administration. Richter said a TIFIA loan, if obtained and structured as a standalone toll‑revenue loan, could limit impacts on each state’s debt capacity and offer drawdown flexibility; state‑backed bonds are more certain today but could constrain future borrowing capacity.

Commissioners pressed staff on sensitivity to early versus later revenues, debt‑service implications, and how small structural choices (three‑step vs. multi‑step schedules, rounding, escalation) affect near‑term borrowing. "Early year revenues tend to be the most valuable revenues for borrowing," a finance lead said, and staff outlined precautionary measures including a revenue stabilization account, repair and replacement reserves, PAYGO funding, and staged bond issuance in the 2030–2035 window.

Staff described next steps and a tentative schedule for public engagement and rulemaking: TIFIA application work beginning fiscal year 2027, public outreach on toll rate and policy scenarios in spring/early summer 2027, issuance of joint toll rate and policy proposals in summer 2027, and potential commission adoption of final toll rates and policies late 2027 or early 2028 to support a December 2028 commencement of pre‑completion tolling on the existing bridges.

No formal rate or policy decisions were taken at the meeting. Commissioners directed the bi‑state tolling subcommittee to refine scenario analysis, explore financing tradeoffs (including further TIFIA work), and return with recommendations to the full commissions and a coordinated public‑engagement plan.