Economist: South Carolina resilient but lacks 'wiggle room' as uncertainty weighs on growth

Dr. Joey Vaness, research economist at the Darlmore School of Business at the University of South Carolina, told a local Beaufort County radio program that South Carolina's economy is showing steady growth but is held back by pervasive uncertainty among businesses and consumers.

Vaness said two types of uncertainty are weighing on the outlook: business uncertainty, driven in part by shifting trade policy and tariffs that have pushed some firms into a "wait-and-see" mode, and consumer uncertainty rooted in job security, wages and prices. "About 70% of our economy comes from consumer spending," he said, noting that real-wage growth (wages adjusted for prices) has begun to recover since 2022 but has not yet restored purchasing power to pre-2020 levels.

Using available data, Vaness described a modest deceleration in GDP growth, from roughly 2.8% to about 2.2% year over year, which he attributed in part to that uncertainty. He called the current labor-market environment "low-hire, low-fire," meaning hiring has slowed while layoffs remain low, and said South Carolina's employment growth is holding up better than the national average (he cited ~1.3% for South Carolina versus ~2% nationally).

Vaness emphasized that state demand is supported by strong population growth. He cited recent U.S. Census figures for 2025 that place South Carolina at the top of the nation for population growth rate, and argued that sustained population and employment gains should keep demand steady. Still, he warned the state has limited "wiggle room" to absorb major shocks, and that a further cooling in activity could have outsized effects.

Vaness closed by briefly discussing the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and how employment trends may inform interest-rate policy in 2026. The host then listed upcoming local events and the program wrapped when a scheduled parade video could not be connected.

Vaness presented data and projections during the program; the figures cited here reflect his on-air presentation and were not independently verified in the transcript.