Consensus adopts lower K‑12 pupil membership estimates and adjustment factors

Ryan Bergman of the Senate Fiscal Agency presented updated pupil membership estimates and proposed adjustment factors for K‑12 funding. The proposed FY26 consensus pupil membership for local education agencies (LEAs) was 1,216,300 and public school academies 155,200, a net decrease of 12,834 pupils from the prior year. For FY27 and FY28 the agencies projected further declines tied to recent birth‑rate drops, with total pupils for the upcoming school year shown at roughly 1,360,000 across LEAs and academies in the forecasts presented.

Bergman explained that a sharp decline in births between 2021 and 2023 (a 5.6% drop cited in the presentation) is the main driver of larger estimated declines in the FY27–FY28 counts. He presented pupil membership adjustment factors (current year membership divided by next year membership) of 1.0085 for 2627 and 1.0097 for 2728 that would be used in budget calculations.

The chair asked for a motion to adopt the estimates and adjustment factor; the motion was seconded and the body voted to adopt the estimates.

The presenters noted a small one‑time appropriation for nonpublic dual enrollment costs and discussed that such items, when listed as one‑time, require separate appropriation to be repeated in subsequent years.