BART warns of an estimated $376 million operating gap and outlines emergency options if regional revenue measure fails

BART board representatives told the Richmond City Council that while the agency has made safety and service improvements, a structural decline in weekday trips has left the system heavily exposed because pre-pandemic farebox revenue covered about 71% of operating costs.

BART director Bernali Goch said ridership is recovering but remains below prior patterns: many riders now commute fewer days per week, which depresses fare revenue even as system needs remain. Staff summarized current projections showing an operating shortfall in the hundreds of millions of dollars by fiscal 2027 unless new, durable revenue is secured.

Proposed solution and contingency: The Bay Area's authorized regional sales-tax measure would deliver an estimated $310 million a year for transit operations if it appears on the November ballot and voters approve it. BART staff said the state has offered a short-term loan to bridge timing gaps should the measure pass, but warned that without new revenue the agency will need to implement contingency service changes. Those could include nightly closures at 9 p.m., reduced lines and weekend schedules and, in deeper cuts, station or segment mothballing. Staff emphasized that cutting service alone produces limited savings and risks further ridership loss.

Local context and partnerships: The presentation emphasized regional coordination: AC Transit, other operators and the BART board are exploring unified fare products and scheduling alignment while also pursuing longer-term funding. Council members and public commenters urged attention to elevator reliability and accessibility at Richmond station for riders with mobility devices — a frequent complaint raised during public comment.

Implications: BART said every 5% increase in ridership gains roughly $13 million in fare revenue, but that ridership would need to rise substantially to erase the structural deficit without new taxes. Councilmembers were urged to share outreach materials with constituents and community groups; BART staff committed to provide fact sheets and further briefings.

If the regional sales-tax measure proceeds, staff said the funds would materially reduce the projected shortfall and preserve broader regional transit service. If it fails, the agency plans a staged implementation of service reductions tied to the budget calendar and additional board action.