Lake Elmo staff recommend amending 2040 numbers after Met Council forecasts; White Bear Lake issue leaves 2050 uncertain

Lake Elmo planning staff told the City Council on April 14, 2026, that Met Council system-statement forecasts released last fall appear low for Lake Elmo and that the city can amend its adopted 2040 plan to use updated local projections while the larger Imagine 2050 and White Bear Lake methodology issues are resolved.

Jason Stoopa (city planning staff) said the Met Council's system-statement numbers show population and household forecasts lower than the city's development pipeline suggests. Staff recommended a 2040-plan amendment that would raise the near-term forecasts the city uses for sewer, utilities and land-use phasing; under the amendment example discussed, staff said 2030 household totals would increase to 7,200 (about 19,200 population) and 2040 households to 8,250 (about 21,400 population). Stoopa told the council, "We won't get the true number for 2025 from the Met Council until about July of 2026. It's always a year behind."

Met Council officials, staff said, signaled willingness to carry corrected 2030 and 2040 figures forward into the 2050 process but declined to set a new 2050 number until the White Bear Lake methodology and related court questions are resolved. Staff summarized the Met Council position: it will withhold additional 2050 growth in jurisdictions affected by the White Bear Lake decision until the council can be assured future growth will not conflict with that court'ordered process; staff noted a June 30, 2027 milestone associated with White Bear Lake work groups.

Council members and staff discussed several practical consequences: sewer interceptors and regional wastewater capital plans use Met Council forecasts to size projects; if forecasts are reduced, sewer capacity and timing could constrain future annexations or project approvals. Staff also emphasized the city's current entitled development pipeline — including a large project (Limmerick; >600 units) that will push near-term unit counts — and said those entitled projects make some of the higher forecast scenarios likely.

Council direction and next steps: Council asked staff to prepare fiscal and utility modeling comparing three paths (the Met Council system-statement numbers, staff's proposed amendment/hybrid and a lower Imagine 2050 scenario), to communicate with the DNR on water-appropriation implications and to return with a recommended amendment and implementation options (including phasing changes and potential range-based forecasts). No formal vote was taken at the workshop.