Demographer says enrollment likely stable but district losing market share to private and homeschool growth

Business Information Services presented a 10‑year enrollment projection built from four models—cohort survival, births/census, school‑age population and housing/economic indicators. Dr. Paul Kelly described the cohort survival approach as the foundation: the way children move grade‑to‑grade established a predictable “fingerprint” for the district.

The firm’s composite projection showed enrollment broadly stable rather than in steep decline. But presenters warned the district is losing market share: since 2017 thousands of students shifted out of public schools into private and home‑schooling. Preston Smith said home‑schooling and private‑school enrollments accounted for a large portion of district decline and that newly built housing has not reliably produced new public‑school students because much new housing rents or attracts adults without school‑age children.

Capacity analysis showed substantial physical capacity in district buildings (utilization roughly 65 percent, well under an 85 percent planning benchmark) and that redistricting and school boundaries materially affect where gains and declines show up at the school level. The demographers recommended a multi‑pronged retention strategy: a 90‑day survey of families who leave, a profile of families using scholarship programs, a targeted value proposition for high schools, facility‑utilization planning and pilot programs to invite part‑time participation by private/homeschooled students.

Board members pressed whether the Georgia Promise scholarship and performance‑based scholarship eligibility were driving enrollment shifts; consultants acknowledged that program is a strong market‑share factor but emphasized broader social and housing dynamics.

Next steps: consultants recommended a district enrollment‑retention plan and suggested targeted outreach and partnerships to recapture students where feasible.