Greenville County Schools projects near-term enrollment dip, elementary cohorts expected to recover by late decade

Drew, the district analyst leading the demographic portion of the 2026 long-range facilities plan, told the board that Greenville County population growth has continued since the 1980s and that county residents rose 2.2% from 2023–24—about 13,000 people—though district enrollment did not mirror that growth in the most recent year.

Drew said the county has seen year-over-year increases in adults aged 22–39, cohorts that historically produce the most births; county births have recently increased and 2025 recorded the highest total since 1988, he said. At the same time, the district’s kindergarten cohort participation rate fell to about 83.76% in 2025, a decline that contributes to a short-term decrease in elementary enrollment.

The presentation reviewed grade-progression ratios and cohort analyses used to project enrollment. Drew described 2020–2022 as a stochastic outlier tied to COVID-era disruptions; elementary and high school enrollment surged following that period, then softened as large cohorts moved through the system and smaller kindergarten classes entered. “We had a 2.2% increase, which is nearly 13,000 new residents,” Drew said; he added that birth increases should help elementary enrollment creep back up through 2030, while middle-school populations remain lower through 2026 before resuming modest growth in 2027–28.

Staff also noted changes in school choice options: charter and homeschool enrollments rose since 2020, and the district is monitoring seven new charter applications with most proposing openings in 2027–28. Transiency and new-enrollee counts fell compared with previous years; Drew said the district saw 6,737 moves year-over-year, down from just over 7,200 the prior year.

Board members pressed staff on how the enrollment changes relate to reported Hispanic student counts and new-enrollee figures; Drew and Dr. Royster explained that the ~1,500 new-enrollee figure is distinct from the net Hispanic growth numbers and that graduation of large cohorts plus birth-rate effects explain much of the change. Staff said the district will update allocation formulas in the general fund budget to reflect population shifts.

What’s next: staff will provide more granular project and school-level projections and return enrollment tables and grade-progression charts requested by board members for packet materials.