NASS July crop production report forecasts stronger small-grain yields, lists upcoming data releases

The National Agricultural Statistics Service released its July crop production report Wednesday, forecasting higher yields and output for several small-grain crops and outlining the data behind those projections. Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board at NASS, opened the briefing and emphasized that the crop production and WASDE reports are principal federal economic indicators subject to OMB release guidance.

Nick Strepp, introduced as acting chief of staff and acting chief of the NASS Pros/Props branch, described the surveys that underlie NASS’s estimates: a farmer-reported yield survey with roughly 4,600 responses collected June 29–July 9; an objective-yield field program for winter wheat with about 1,155 samples across 10 states collected June 24–July 1; and utilization data from the Florida Citrus Administrative Committee for citrus estimates. “The darker the shade of the state, the larger the sample size,” Strepp said while describing sample distribution maps.

NASS forecast winter wheat yield at 52.0 bushels per acre and U.S. winter wheat production at about 1.34 billion bushels, a 3.6% increase from last month’s estimate. Strepp said 51% of the winter wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition as of June 30 and that harvest progress was ahead of last year (reported at 54% harvested on June 30, rising to 63% by July 7). NASS reported that several states — including Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — were posting record or near-record yields year over year.

For other spring wheat, NASS projected a record U.S. yield of 53.1 bushels per acre and production of about 578 million bushels, up roughly 14.4% from the prior year; North Dakota was cited as the leading state for the record yield outlook. NASS’s durum-wheat estimates showed North Dakota condition at 79% good-to-excellent, a forecasted durum yield of 42.7 bushels per acre, and U.S. durum production reported at about 89.3 million bushels (NASS noted its estimate was just outside some industry ranges).

Strepp also provided a quick rundown of other crop forecasts: U.S. barley production was forecast at about 150 million bushels (down ~19% year over year), almond production was forecast near 2.8 billion pounds (up about 13% if realized), and U.S. all-oranges production was forecast at 2.76 million tons with substantial increases reported for California. He flagged that NASS will review administrative acreage data (including FSA-certified data) for the August crop production report.

Strepp closed with a schedule of upcoming NASS releases, including the Puerto Rico census of agriculture (July 18), cattle on feed (July 19), the farm production and expenditures report (July 26) and the August crop production report, which will include the first forecasts for several row crops and hay.

The briefing was conducted under OMB-guided embargo procedures; NASS said it would host a social-media question session later in the afternoon and that written or phone inquiries could be directed to NASS staff.