WASDE: Global supply revisions lift stocks, trim U.S. price forecasts for several commodities

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) presented at the NASS briefing showed upward revisions to global supplies for several grains and modest downward revisions to U.S. price forecasts, officials said. Dr. Mark Jekanowski, who led the WASDE discussion, said the global wheat production estimate was raised by about 5.4 million tons this month, driven largely by U.S. increases and gains in countries such as Argentina and Canada, while some EU production (notably France) was lowered due to wet conditions.

Jekanowski described how higher U.S. production increases total U.S. wheat supply (NASS incorporated new acreage and production data), with roughly 133 million additional bushels entering supply this month. He said some of those supplies will be exported (NASS raised export expectations for certain classes by about 25 million bushels) but most of the increase flows to ending stocks, which contributed to a roughly $0.80-per-bushel reduction in the new-crop season-average U.S. wheat price forecast to about $5.70 per bushel.

On other commodities, WASDE noted small global rice production increases tied to Pakistan government data and modest trade shifts; corn production was raised in the U.S. and some global regions based on updated acreage, with mixed implications for old- and new-crop stocks; and soybeans saw Argentina old-crop downgrades while U.S. acreage revisions tightened domestic supplies modestly. In cotton, the U.S. production outlook drove global changes, and the presenter flagged expanded production prospects in China’s Xinjiang region. Sugar forecasts increased for beet and cane production in the U.S., raising current-marketing-year supplies and moving TRQ and Mexico-related import calculations.

WASDE also covered livestock and dairy: beef production was raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, pork production was modestly adjusted to align with slaughter data, and milk-production forecasts were nudged lower for current and next year, lifting product and all-milk price forecasts. Jekanowski said higher domestic product prices could reduce U.S. competitiveness in some export categories.

The presenter repeatedly emphasized that the WASDE balances integrate the morning’s NASS crop production estimates alongside acreage and trade data, and that many figures are subject to revision as additional data (including administrative acreage) are incorporated.