Baird forecast shows narrow window; Bangor board hears options for November referendum

Kim Sauble of Baird presented a school-finance primer to the Bangor School Board and walked members through district-specific projections that shape whether and when to seek voter approval for operating revenue.

Sauble said Bangor is “home to about 650 students” while the district’s resident full‑time‑equivalent (FTE) for funding calculations is 622, and she described how the state revenue‑limit formula multiplies that FTE by a per‑pupil amount (recently set at a $11,000 floor) and then adjusts for exemptions such as a nonrecurring referendum. Sauble’s snapshot estimated an annual budget near $10 million, a school mill rate around $9.52 and a fund balance near 16% as of June 30, 2023. She noted the district’s current nonrecurring referendum provides $900,000 per year and is in its second of three years.

“Most of the time … when the bubble in the middle gets bigger, the bubble at the end, the taxes gets smaller,” Sauble said, explaining how increases in state equalization aid can reduce local levy rather than raise district revenue. She reviewed three scenarios the district asked Baird to model: continuing the current nonrecurring referendum, seeking a four‑year nonrecurring amount, or pursuing a recurring referendum that would be baked into the per‑pupil base.

Board members pressed on trade‑offs. Sauble said a recurring referendum increases the district’s per‑pupil base — which can provide long‑term stability — but historically nonrecurring measures have a slightly higher pass rate and allow more explicit, time‑limited asks to voters. She recommended adopting an August 2024 resolution if the board wants a November 5, 2024, ballot question; that calendar would let revenue come online in the 2025–26 school year.

District leaders said they prefer the November timeline to avoid imposing a referendum on a new superintendent in their first year. The presentation noted sensitivity to several assumptions — enrollment trends, per‑pupil increases the Legislature may adopt, and property valuation growth — and Sauble emphasized that models are forecasts not guarantees.

The board did not take a vote on a referendum question at the meeting; Sauble and district staff said they will return with refined scenarios, legal wording from bond counsel and additional pass‑rate data as requested by members. The board’s next procedural step would be adoption of a resolution by August if members direct staff to proceed toward a November ballot.