Toledo City board approves five‑year forecast as trustees warn assumptions are fragile

The Toledo City School District board unanimously approved a five‑year financial forecast showing revenues of roughly $336 million to $364 million per year and projected expenditures of $369 million to $386 million, leaving an ending balance of about $22.5 million if key assumptions hold.

Treasurer Chip Salty presented the forecast, saying it contains three years of actuals and five years of projections and assumes flat enrollment at 19,953 students. Salty said 69% of the district’s revenue comes from the state, 27% is local and about 4% is other sources; he noted a proposed operating levy on the November ballot that, when fully collected, is expected to generate roughly $10 million annually. He warned the forecast is sensitive to property reappraisals, collection rates and the continuation of the state’s Fair School Funding plan.

Board members pressed staff for details during a question‑and‑answer period. A trustee asked whether the district pays for services when students attend charter or private schools; Salty confirmed that state funding follows the student and does not pay district staff who continue to serve those students. Trustees also discussed House Bill 920 limits on levy revenue and an anticipated 20% county property reappraisal that will not automatically increase levy revenue because effective rates fall as values rise.

Several trustees emphasized the forecast’s fragility. Board member Mister Vasquez and others praised administrative planning but said the budget relies on assumptions that could change, including levy passage and future state funding decisions. The board voted to approve the forecast after motions and a roll call of members recorded as 'Yes'.

What’s next: the board indicated it will monitor enrollment, property‑valuation changes and legislative action closely; the forecast will inform budget work this year, and the district plans public outreach ahead of the November levy vote.