Demographer warns St. Louis region may face sustained population decline; cites loss of Black families and low housing production

Dr. Ness Sandoval, a demographer at Saint Louis University, told the St. Louis City Budget & Public Employees Committee that new population estimates show the St. Louis metropolitan region has shifted into a period of natural decline — more deaths than births — beginning in 2020 and that continued out-migration is compounding that loss.

"We have to become younger. We need to get more families with children," Sandoval told alderpersons, warning that under one heuristic the region could lose roughly 12,000 residents a year if current trends persist. He said preliminary 2023 and 2022 data show COVID added an excess of deaths but that underlying age structure and fertility declines preceded the pandemic.

The presentation focused both on regional patterns and city-level details. Sandoval said the metro area’s recent growth has come almost entirely from Hispanic residents while non-Hispanic populations declined, leaving St. Louis ranked low among top U.S. metropolitan areas for Hispanic share and overall racial diversity. He reported the metropolitan area has lost about 39,000 Black residents since 2019 and characterized the percentage decline as among the largest in the nation over that period.

At the city level, Sandoval said the latest estimate places St. Louis City near 281,000 residents, down from earlier estimates near 319,000. He told the committee that while household numbers have increased, the composition changed: he cited a decline of roughly 5,000 Black families with children in recent years and flagged stark racial differences in mortality. "If I was a young mother and I saw these charts, I would probably leave the city," he said, pointing to higher child and youth mortality counts in the African American population in recent years.

Members of the committee pressed on policy implications. Alderwoman Boyd said the data provided vocabulary for long-observed trends and stressed the need to stabilize Black families and improve school quality. Committee members repeatedly connected population change to housing and schools: Sandoval pointed to housing-permit rankings showing the region issued far fewer new units in 2023 (roughly 7,000) compared with rapidly growing metros such as Austin (roughly 38,000), and he argued that limited supply of attainable family housing contributes to out-migration.

Sandoval offered concrete follow-ups: county- and city-level breakdowns by race and age, cause-of-death details for COVID-era mortality, and interactive maps showing where departing residents relocate. Chair Spencer requested that the committee receive city-specific graphs and a fuller breakdown of Black population loss and destinations for movers.

A procedural motion to approve the committee's April 10 minutes passed unanimously among the four members present; no other formal legislation or ordinance was considered.

Sandoval closed by urging local governments to challenge census estimates when warranted, invest in attainable family housing, and pursue policies that make the region more welcoming to families. "We should not be afraid of diversity. We should embrace diversity," he said.

The hearing ended with committee members asking for the additional data Sandoval offered and noting the implications of sustained population loss for the city's budget, workforce and school enrollment.