Pollsters: Voter survey shows majority support for potential BOUSD bond; consultants urge outreach

Consultants for the Brea Olinda Unified School District told trustees on Feb. 22 that public-opinion testing shows a path to passage for a new facilities bond if the district combines a carefully structured project list with an informational outreach campaign.

"At that initial ballot test, we had 65% of likely November voters say that they would support this proposal," pollster Dr. Timothy McClarny of True North Research reported during a presentation of a 510-interview study. The firm said its sample yields a margin of error of about ±4.3 percentage points for likely November voters.

Why it matters: Voter-approved general obligation bonds in California require a two-thirds? No — for school bonds under Proposition 39 the threshold is 55% — majority support above that threshold is required. Consultants said the district’s projects and the way the tax impact is presented both affect support.

The survey tested a 75-word ballot statement, a range of tax-rate scenarios and a detailed project list. When pollsters framed tax impacts as dollar amounts for a median homeowner (for example, $265 per year at a $45 per $100,000 assessed-value rate, or $165 per year at a $28 rate), support increased in their testing. The consultants also reported that every project they tested — from roofing, plumbing and ADA upgrades to technology and career-technical facilities — showed at least 75% favorability.

Consultant Charles Heath of Team Civics and Dr. McClarny urged trustees to treat the poll as a snapshot rather than a guarantee of election performance. "All of those ballot tests were north of the 55% threshold that is needed for a Prop 39 bond to be successful," McClarny said, but he added that effective opposition or adverse statewide dynamics could erode margins. He recommended an informational outreach period, refined project lists and re-testing before the board would need to adopt a bond resolution by the registrar’s July 19 deadline to place a measure on the November ballot.

Trustee questions focused on project prioritization and the difference between a new bond and a bond extension. Pollsters said an "extension" (continuing an existing $22 per $100,000 assessed-value rate) typically tests more easily but generates less total revenue than a new bond at the higher tested rate. The presenters recommended using the next several months to educate voters about facility needs and to provide tools (a calculator on the district website was proposed) so homeowners can see their personal cost under any proposed rate.

Next steps: Trustees were advised to conduct further targeted research closer to the July deadline if they decide to move forward, refine the project list, and begin an informational communications program while ensuring formal advocacy is handled by community volunteers and private resources, as district staff cannot use public funds to advocate.