Economist Oscar Elías Amor outlines how Cuba’s economy could be rebuilt

Oscar Elías Amor, an economist based in Madrid, told Radio Martí hosts Yanisé Rivero and Ninoska Pérez Castellón that Cuba could recover economically if political democratization and market-oriented reforms happen together, but that the country first must clear debts and restore transparency.

Amor said the external front — settling arrears and regaining access to international finance — is “prioritario” and must accompany internal reforms to production and governance. "La transición política es posible y la transición económica también," he said, arguing both must proceed in parallel to attract investment and reintegrate Cuba into global markets.

Amor traced part of Cuba’s current weakness to the destruction of productive sectors after 1959 and to the loss of sugar as a foreign-exchange engine. He noted the island’s limited domestic oil ("muy mala calidad, lleno de azufre") and the collapse of refineries, and said that chronic deficits and prior reform attempts have pushed inflation and weakened the currency (he cited inflation near 70 percent). "Cuando analizamos las cosas, no podemos basarnos en conjeturas ni en cifras que aporta alguien que se las ha encontrado en una mesa," Amor said, calling for official statistics and transparent budgets.

Hosts raised a widely reported claim that the military conglomerate Gaviota holds $18,000,000,000. Amor declined to corroborate that figure: "Yo no tengo constancia de esos 18000000000 de dólares, y lo digo con total tranquilidad; esa empresa es un foco de oscuridad y no es presa transparente," he said, adding that Gaviota and other state groups lack the public reporting necessary to verify such numbers.

On revenue sources, Amor listed exports and services that generate hard currency for the regime, saying sales of medical services are an important line (he mentioned roughly $11,000,000,000), along with tobacco, mining (nickel, cobalt) and tourism. He also described how remittances and informal cross-border purchases by private entrepreneurs (cuentapropistas) underpin household survival and small commerce.

As to policy priorities, Amor recommended focusing on sectors that generate employment and rebuilding: construction and housing rehabilitation, agriculture reforms that give land and decision-making to farmers (he cited Vietnam’s example), improved transport infrastructure for Havana (including a metro proposal), and importing foreign capital and technology for renewables.

Amor also discussed international debt negotiations. He said Cuba has been treated "bastante bien" in some debt-relief talks (citing 2014–2015 rounds) but warned that opaque accounts and exclusion from many international financial organizations make it difficult for external analysts to assess the full picture. He referenced legal efforts by creditors (the CRF case in London) as evidence of unresolved claims that limit Cuba’s access to finance.

The interview mixed concrete policy proposals with political prescription: Amor argued that a democratic government that publishes budgets and opens the economy would be most likely to restore investor confidence and finance necessary reconstruction. The hosts closed the segment by thanking Amor; no formal policy action or official response followed on the program.