Consultant shows parcel‑level growth model forecasting buildout, seasonal surges and retail demand
February 07, 2026 | Citrus County, Florida
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David Farmer, a licensed planner and engineer working for the county’s consultant team, presented an updated interactive growth model at the Citrus County strategic planning retreat and told commissioners the county’s buildout is roughly 204,000–205,000 housing units.
The model, Farmer said, uses parcel‑level analysis cross‑referenced with water‑meter and other administrative datasets to detect recent development that lagged in standard GIS sources. “We married the water meter data with that, which really gave us a really good picture of what’s happening,” Farmer said. He highlighted a near‑term forecast of about 8,000–8,500 new homes between now and 2030 and an inflection point in countywide growth around 2035.
Why it matters: the map shows where population and housing will concentrate so county departments—utilities, parks, fire and law enforcement—can time investments. Farmer said the county still has about 53,600 platted vacant lots that constitute a major near‑term supply, and that seasonal residents already add more than 21,000 people at peak times, a number that will rise toward 29,000 by 2050 and further at full buildout.
Commissioners used the presentation to probe specific corridors. Commissioner Barrack asked whether Citrus Springs’ original PUD anticipated the mixed residential and business growth the model projects; Farmer said many PUDs “were meant to serve themselves” and that grocery anchors or neighborhood shopping centers will land where developers can acquire land at feasible prices. “There’s more than enough people to support two neighborhood shopping centers,” Farmer said, but added that grocer timing depends on market and land availability.
The consultant’s data also corrected one packaged figure the consultant had earlier flagged as a typo: District 3’s vacancy was 9.3% not 19.3%, Farmer said.
What’s next: commissioners asked staff to incorporate the model’s outputs into the ongoing comprehensive‑plan update and to develop policy options—zoning overlays, targeted acquisition or incentives—to ensure land is available for parks, public safety and commercial uses in the places the model identifies.
Provenance: topic introduced SEG 351; discussion and Q&A continue through SEG 960.
The model, Farmer said, uses parcel‑level analysis cross‑referenced with water‑meter and other administrative datasets to detect recent development that lagged in standard GIS sources. “We married the water meter data with that, which really gave us a really good picture of what’s happening,” Farmer said. He highlighted a near‑term forecast of about 8,000–8,500 new homes between now and 2030 and an inflection point in countywide growth around 2035.
Why it matters: the map shows where population and housing will concentrate so county departments—utilities, parks, fire and law enforcement—can time investments. Farmer said the county still has about 53,600 platted vacant lots that constitute a major near‑term supply, and that seasonal residents already add more than 21,000 people at peak times, a number that will rise toward 29,000 by 2050 and further at full buildout.
Commissioners used the presentation to probe specific corridors. Commissioner Barrack asked whether Citrus Springs’ original PUD anticipated the mixed residential and business growth the model projects; Farmer said many PUDs “were meant to serve themselves” and that grocery anchors or neighborhood shopping centers will land where developers can acquire land at feasible prices. “There’s more than enough people to support two neighborhood shopping centers,” Farmer said, but added that grocer timing depends on market and land availability.
The consultant’s data also corrected one packaged figure the consultant had earlier flagged as a typo: District 3’s vacancy was 9.3% not 19.3%, Farmer said.
What’s next: commissioners asked staff to incorporate the model’s outputs into the ongoing comprehensive‑plan update and to develop policy options—zoning overlays, targeted acquisition or incentives—to ensure land is available for parks, public safety and commercial uses in the places the model identifies.
Provenance: topic introduced SEG 351; discussion and Q&A continue through SEG 960.
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