Fairfax County DOT outlines multimodal analysis for Franconia–Springfield, flags crash hot spots and bike/ped gaps

Tom Burke, a transportation planner with the Fairfax County Department of Transportation, presented the department's multimodal analysis approach for the Franconia–Springfield area plan and asked advisory‑group members to weigh tradeoffs between vehicle delay and pedestrian and bicycle comfort as the county refines land‑use recommendations.

Burke said the transportation analysis will examine cars, transit, walking and bicycling and will compare the current comprehensive‑plan land use with alternative, advisory‑group‑driven preferred scenarios. "We wanna make sure that cars and trucks... are moving, you know, flowing sufficiently, but we also wanna make sure that we're providing adequate multimodal options," Burke told the group.

Staff summarized data collection and performance measures: traffic counts collected in December 2024 with makeup dates in January 2025; AM counts from 6 a.m.–9 a.m. and PM counts from 4 p.m.–7 p.m.; seven years of crash data from Jan. 2018 through Apr. 2025 to identify hot spots. Burke said the crash map showed concentrated hot spots around Commerce and Franconia and multiple problematic mall entrances; on the pedestrian crash map he said, "it looks like there's been 4 fatalities involving pedestrians" over the period.

Burke reviewed existing county plans—the trails plan, the 2014–15 Bicycle Master Plan and the county bicycle map—and said staff will evaluate whether on‑road bike lanes in high‑volume corridors should shift to buffered or separated off‑road facilities to lower stress for casual cyclists. He noted pedestrian level‑of‑comfort and bicycle level‑of‑stress metrics show many sidewalks and bike lanes score in the yellow/orange range, indicating upgrades are needed to reach a 1–2 comfort/stress level for 'ages 8 to 80.'

The presentation flagged specific planning issues that will be part of later advisory‑group decisions, including Old Keene Mill (planned in the comp plan for six lanes), a second bridge alignment for Backlick/Amherst, and the Frontier Drive extension. Burke also described the county's performance target for many metro station areas (level‑of‑service standard E) and said the plan stage will surface tradeoffs — for example, adding turn lanes can lengthen pedestrian crossing distances while reducing vehicle queuing.

During Q&A, participants asked about the largest transit ridership stops; staff identified a high‑activity node north of Commerce (near the Concord shopping center) and said many stops are served by connector routes (Fairfax Connector/TAGS). Burke said staff will calibrate model outputs with field counts and mobile‑device data sources and will eventually submit certain analyses to VDOT for review.

The transportation analysis team expects to complete existing‑conditions analysis in 2025 and will return to the advisory group as analysis milestones are met; any recommendations that change the comp plan will be translated into plan text and then applied at zoning and project stages.