CSU study: losing irrigation in Republican Basin could cost region hundreds of millions to $1.5 billion a year

A Colorado State University-led report presented to the Joint Agriculture, Water and Natural Resources Committee warns that a potential curtailment of irrigation in the Republican River Basin would cause severe economic harm across northeastern Colorado and neighboring counties.

Aaron Sprague, chairman of the Republican River Water Conservation District, told lawmakers the basin must retire 25,000 irrigated acres in a South Fork focus zone to meet compact obligations; the district has retired about 18,000 acres and faces a 2029 deadline to reach the target. "We're under the gun to retire 25,000 acres," Sprague said, adding the district uses voluntary retirement programs such as CREP and EQIP and supplements those programs with locally raised incentives.

Jordan Suter, a CSU agricultural economist who co-authored the study, described four scenarios for how irrigated acreage might convert without irrigation, from conversion largely to grazing to scenarios that include severe revenue reductions for confined feeding operations. "Our primary study area is the eight counties in northeastern Colorado that touch the basin," Suter said. He recommended scenario 3'a parcel-level prediction derived from EQIP conversion data'as the best current estimate while emphasizing uncertainty in any predictive exercise.

CSU extension economist Rebecca Hill summarized modeled impacts: annual private-sector revenue losses range from about $656 million (scenario 3) to as much as $1.5 billion (scenario 4), with irrigated corn suffering the largest single-sector decline (roughly $350 million in the scenarios shown). Estimated employment losses in the study region range from roughly 2,600 to 5,300 jobs, with Kit Carson and Yuma counties facing the largest county-level percentage declines (Kit Carson about 12% and Yuma over 15% in the study's preferred scenario). The report also projects reductions in state and local tax revenue and spillover losses to bordering Nebraska and Kansas counties.

Lawmakers pressed presenters on likely outcomes and federal program constraints. Committee members asked how confident the district was about retiring the remaining roughly 7,000 acres; Sprague said interest has increased with added local incentives and that he is "super confident" the goal can be met, though he warned that CREP signups and federal rental-rate guidance remain uncertain. Suter said the team used EQIP, CREP and other program data and prefers scenario 3 as the working estimate while acknowledging substantial uncertainty in parcel-level conversions.

The report was produced pursuant to a legislative study directive and the presenters said the executive summary and full report are available on the Colorado Water Center website. The committee did not take formal action during the hearing; researchers and district leaders asked lawmakers and state agencies to continue coordination on program delivery, funding, and technical assistance to make the retirements feasible.