NASS January briefing: U.S. cattle inventory hits lowest January 1 level since 1951; calf, lamb crops down

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) told USDA policymakers that U.S. livestock inventories showed notable shifts in 2025, with the national cattle herd declining to its smallest January 1 size since 1951.

Travis Averell, chief of the NASS Livestock Branch, said the agency’s January 2026 estimate puts all cattle and calves at 86,200,000 head, down four-tenths of a percent from the 2025 final inventory. "This is the lowest U.S. January 1 all cattle and calves inventory since 1951," Averell said during the briefing.

NASS collected the data from about 35,000 operations across all 50 states between Dec. 31 and Jan. 16 using mail, telephone, internet and in-person interviews, Averell said. Honing in on class data, the agency reported 37,200,000 cows and heifers that calved (down 0.3%), beef cows at 27,600,000 (down 1%), and milk cows rising roughly 2% to about 9,900,000.

The 2025 U.S. calf crop was estimated at 32,900,000 head, a 1.6% decline from the prior year. "The annual calf crop is at 32,900,000 head, down 1.6% from previous year," Averell said, adding that the second-half share of the calf crop increased slightly to 26.4%.

NASS also reported on slaughter composition and feeder supplies, noting that all-cow slaughter accounted for 17.9% of total slaughter in 2025 (down from 20.5% in 2024) and that heifer slaughter rose, signaling mixed signals for herd expansion prospects.

On feedlot inventories, feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more held 11,450,000 head (down 3.2%); smaller feedlots (under 1,000 capacity) were reported at about 2,397,000 head (down 4.1%). The agency calculated total feeder cattle supply at 24,500,000 head, a small increase from 2025.

Turning to sheep and goats, NASS said all sheep and lambs on Jan. 1, 2026 were 4,990,000 head (down 0.7% from 2025), with a 2025 lamb crop of about 3,030,000 head (down 0.3%). All goats and kids were estimated at 2,509,000 head (up 0.6%), and the 2024 kid crop was revised to about 1,516,000 head (down 0.3%).

Averell framed the data with environmental context, presenting drought snapshots that showed moderate drought covered about 33% of the U.S. and severe drought about 10% as of Dec. 31, 2024. He said NASS reviews final calf-crop, slaughter, death-loss and trade data when making revisions to its estimates.

Lance Honig, chair of the agricultural statistics board, reminded listeners of Office of Management and Budget (OMB) statistical guidance on releases, noting that OMB "instructs policy making officials to refrain from making public comment within 30 minutes of its release," and said the briefing would not take public questions; NASS staff remained available by phone or email for follow-up.

NASS listed upcoming reports and events, including agricultural prices and peanut prices on Feb. 2; crop production on Feb. 10; farms and land in farms on Feb. 13; monthly cattle on feed and milk production reports (Feb. 20); and the full storage report on Feb. 24. Averell also noted the 102nd annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in February at the Crystal City Gateway Marriott.

The briefing is intended to help USDA and other policymakers interpret the official estimates; Honig said if any discrepancy appears between the briefing and the official published estimates, the official NASS publications should be used as the authoritative record.

The livestream concluded after the presentation.