MDOT forecast shows TTF revenue gains but rising operating costs and new bond issuance

Committee members heard MDOT and DLS staff describe a transportation forecast that reflects recent revenue increases but also growing operating and debt costs that limit near-term spending flexibility.

A transportation presenter said revenues adopted in the 2024 and 2025 sessions are estimated to increase TTF receipts by about $4.9 billion through FY31 and enable roughly $1.2 billion in additional bond proceeds; at the same time, operating expenditures are projected to increase by about $3.1 billion and capital spending by roughly $1.3 billion over the forecast period.

The briefing noted a structural change in revenue composition: vehicle titling taxes are expected to grow and, in the 2026 forecast, surpass motor fuel taxes as the largest state-sourced TTF revenue. MDOT's forecast also projects an increase in debt service tied to additional bond issuances and a projected $600 million decrease in motor fuel tax revenue over the forecast period.

In capital program remarks, presenters described use of new general obligation and academic-revenue bonds and postponements of some capital projects (including a delayed Baltimore therapeutic treatment center start) that created capacity to shift operating relief to bond financing and free funds for legislative initiatives. Presenters said $1.75 billion in new GO bonds is included for FY27 and that some projects were deauthorized or delayed to accommodate those funds.

Members asked about long-term fund balances and the risk that MDOT may not recoup certain previously charged federal costs; staff noted legislative-audit findings raising a possible risk to the TTF if federal reimbursements do not materialize.

The presentation included no formal transportation votes; staff answered member questions and the committee adjourned.