Harbor district hears sea‑level rise, vessel‑traffic and tow‑out simulation updates for Redwood Marine Terminal project

The Humboldt Bay Harbor Recreation and Conservation District on Tuesday received technical briefings on the proposed Redwood Marine Terminal heavy‑lift project, with consultants describing updated sea‑level rise inputs, vessel‑traffic baselines and a phased program of real‑time navigation simulations to test tow‑out feasibility.

"We are now using the California Coastal Commission CLRS guidance and local studies to interpret what that means at our site," Aaron, a project consultant, told the board. He said the team is designing the terminal to consider roughly 4.7 feet of sea‑level rise by 2080 for the facility's design horizon while exploring adaptive approaches for elements that can be phased over time.

Aaron also presented a vessel‑traffic baseline using AIS vessel‑tracking data. He said a 2023 AIS analysis shows roughly 1,400 transits in the harbor for vessels with transponders and that most AIS traffic is concentrated in the authorized federal navigation channel. He cautioned AIS undercounts smaller recreational craft and many commercial fishing vessels and said the team will combine AIS data with stakeholder input, harbor master information and other observational sources to build a fuller baseline.

Gwen, who leads the navigation simulations, described the project's use of professional, real‑time bridge‑scale simulators to model tug, barge and foundation behavior with inputs such as time‑varying currents, waves, wind and accurate bathymetry. She said validation simulations were completed in April 2025 and outlined phased summer and fall simulations that will test foundation tow‑outs, tug configurations, environmental limits for safe tow days and production‑scale operations.

Public commenters raised specific concerns about data gaps and model calibration. Kevin McKernan, a Eureka resident, urged the project team to incorporate GPX tracks from local yacht clubs, Madaket tour‑boat logs and non‑AIS datasets for kayaks, rowers and other small‑boat users, and to ground‑truth current and wave models against local knowledge.

Project staff responded that they plan a mixed qualitative and quantitative approach to include stakeholder datasets and that a draft vessel‑traffic report is likely later this year; Aaron estimated a fuller report could be available in the fall. The board also agreed to post presentation materials to the project website within a week or two.

— Reporting based on Humboldt Bay Harbor Recreation and Conservation District meeting transcript.