Probation report: AB 109 releases falling, recidivism rates steady and county outcomes better than statewide

The Probation Department told the Santa Clara County Public Safety and Justice Committee that AB 109 releases have declined in recent years while recidivism rates have remained relatively stable, and county outcomes compare favorably with statewide averages.

Deputy Chief Mark Etsie and data staff presented trends for 2019–2023 showing a steady decline in AB 109 releases across mandatory supervision (MS) and post‑release community supervision (PRCS) populations. Presenters said the county’s AB 109 population is predominantly male, largely ages 25–44 at release, and that more than half of MS and 42% of PRCS clients had permanent housing as of June 30, 2025; 12% of MS and 15% of PRCS were unhoused at that date.

The department reviewed rearrest (new arrest) and recidivism (conviction for a new law violation) metrics at 1‑, 2‑ and 3‑year follow‑ups and said rates have stayed relatively stable with no statistically significant year‑to‑year differences. Staff reported that the county’s PRCS recidivism outcomes were statistically significantly better than statewide outcomes for the comparable cohort.

Supervisors and presenters discussed possible drivers of the county’s comparative success: investment in staff, cross‑departmental partnerships (behavioral health, reentry supports, enrollment in benefits) and diversionary programs. The committee asked whether unduplicated release counts change the results; the presenters said they conducted unduplicated analyses and the comparative advantage held.

The committee voted to receive the report and asked for further analysis in the annual data book and ongoing reporting on five‑year outcomes.