Kansas Sentencing Commission warns current trajectory will require 2,530 more prison beds by 2035; urges use of treatment and review of guidelines

The Kansas Sentencing Commission told the Committee on Corrections and Juvenile Justice that under current trends the state could need about 2,530 additional prison beds by 2035 and urged lawmakers to weigh alternatives such as expanded community treatment and program capacity before committing to more prison construction.

Director Schultz, speaking for the 17-member commission, said the commission’s impact briefs and public dashboards are intended to help lawmakers assess how proposed changes to penalties would affect admissions, bed needs and demographic patterns. “When you see it, you can look no further if you want to,” Schultz said of the Commission’s concise impact “box,” which summarizes estimated admissions and bed-space impact.

The Commission outlined how to read Kansas’s sentencing grid: the vertical axis indicates severity (1 is most severe, 10 least), the horizontal axis shows criminal history, and the boxes list estimated months; color coding flags presumptive prison, presumptive probation and judge-discretion cells. Schultz emphasized that the Commission’s analyses cover felony cases only and noted juveniles remain under a separate code with adjudications rather than convictions.

On drug offenses, Schultz said Kansas moved to a quantity-based drug grid in 2012. He told members that level-5 offenses are typically possession, while higher levels reflect distribution or manufacturing. In response to lawmakers’ questions, Schultz said state statutory language does not prescribe simple possession thresholds for marijuana and that whether a charge becomes a felony can turn on evidence of intent to distribute and jury findings.

On capacity, Schultz described the Commission’s 10-year projection model — produced as required by statute — which factors direct admissions, probation revocations, parole or post-release supervision violators, jail credits, and other inputs gathered from the Department of Corrections, judges and field practitioners. He said the model has performed well in recent years and the office monitors it monthly, targeting a percent error around 2 percent.

“We will need 2,530 beds, by 2035,” Schultz said, adding that planned renovations and proposed 400-bed additions (including a Hutchinson facility remodel) would not by themselves meet projected needs if current trajectories continue. He identified drug-related felonies as a leading driver of admissions and noted the Commission is tracking rising felony shares in many rural counties.

Schultz urged committee members to scrutinize proposals that would increase penalties because added months per conviction translate directly into bed demand. He recommended investment in community corrections and evidence-based programs, noting those approaches are far less costly than incarceration and citing Minnesota’s recent review and planned 800-bed facility closure as an example of reform-driven capacity reductions.

The Commission also reviewed the state’s SB 123 substance-abuse treatment program, which the Commission administers and funds for certified providers. Schultz said the program typically serves about 1,100–1,200 participants annually, covers inpatient through outpatient modalities, and has been expanded three times in recent years. A University of Cincinnati evaluation the Commission cited found program completers were “75 percent less likely to recidivate,” though the Commission said studies vary in how recidivism is measured (re-arrest, reconviction or return to prison).

Schultz said the Commission recently added medication-assisted treatment (MAT) options for opiates and alcohol to its paid modalities; methamphetamine remains the most common diagnosis among participants and lacks a directly comparable FDA-approved MAT option. He noted roughly 57 certified providers operate at about 123 locations statewide, from large operators (example cited: Mir in Newton) to smaller local providers.

On administration and technology, Schultz announced he plans to introduce a bill that would make the Commission’s cloud-based sentencing application mandatory for preparing pre-sentence investigation and probation violation journal entries. The app supports digital signatures and e-filing integration that the Commission says will reduce paper handling and filing errors.

Schultz closed by describing a planned comprehensive review of the 33-year-old guidelines, seeking technical assistance from the Council of State Governments Justice Center and possible external funding to support a multi-year stakeholder-driven review. He invited committee members and practitioners to participate in the process.

The committee asked clarifying questions about marijuana thresholds, whether digital treatment access is available for rural residents, the timing by which beds would be needed under current assumptions (Schultz pointed to fiscal-year estimates around 2028–2029), and the affordability of mandatory treatment when many participants are indigent. Schultz said about 85 percent of felony defendants are indigent and that the commission sometimes subsidizes transportation or other costs in treatment programs but does not generally pay for all treatment costs.

The committee did not take formal action on the presentation; Schultz said he would return with the proposed app bill and additional materials.