UMass Donahue Institute: Massachusetts fared well overall in 2020 but child undercounts and operational gaps demand 2030 planning

Susan Strait of the UMass Donahue Institute presented state‑focused analysis to the Massachusetts Senate Committee on the Census on Dec. 8, describing how the Census Bureau’s coverage‑evaluation tools played out in the state and recommending steps for 2030.

Strait said Massachusetts’ 2020 census count was strong in total — pushing the state population above 7 million and producing decade growth near the national average — but county‑level analysis shows concentrations of undercounts for young children and other vulnerable groups. "Massachusetts in the 2020 Census count came out strong, by many measures," she said, then noted that the PES indicated a 4.15% estimated undercount for ages 0–4 in the state and named Hampden, Suffolk and Essex counties among those with the largest child undercounts.

Strait reviewed operational metrics with a Massachusetts lens. She explained that in NRFU (nonresponse follow‑up) household interviews accounted for about 56.4% of resolutions, administrative records about 17.8%, and proxy interviews almost 26%. She cautioned that reliance on administrative records can miss characteristics (race, ethnicity) and that proxy responses are weak for age and demographic detail.

The Donahue Institute identified correlations between child undercounts and local socioeconomic measures: counties with higher shares of adults without a high‑school diploma and higher shares of female‑headed households showed stronger associations with child undercount risk. Strait said these two correlations were statistically significant in her county‑level tests and used county maps to flag outreach priority areas.

Local examples followed. Senator Driscoll described Randolph’s multi‑year effort to appeal a near‑miss on a 35,000 population threshold; the Census Bureau eventually acknowledged an error after local documentation and Donahue Institute support, but the acknowledgement did not immediately alter annual ACS outputs. Town clerk Wendy Houle of Sunderland told the committee her town believes it lost residents due to address and seasonal‑delivery complications and limited clerk resources, and urged more practical support for small municipal clerks in LUCA and outreach.

Strait recommended three near‑term priorities for Massachusetts: (1) ensure a complete, accurate inventory of housing units before the 2030 LUCA cycle; (2) identify and plan outreach for hard‑to‑count populations (young children, renters, immigrant households, limited English speakers); and (3) decide on an administrative‑record strategy that balances data utility and privacy protections to reduce NRFU dependence on proxy responses.

What happens next: lawmakers indicated interest in working with Donahue Institute staff and municipal clerks to refine outreach plans and LUCA support. No formal votes or policy changes were made during the hearing; the committee adjourned by voice vote.