Forecast flags hit to Vermont tourism from fewer Canadian visitors and stresses in health‑fund projections and wages

Tom Cabette told the joint Senate committees that Vermont faces a number of state‑specific headwinds even as the overall revenue forecast is stable.

On tourism, Cabette said visitation data and border‑crossing counts show a notable decline in Canadian travel to the state. A participant who reviewed US Customs passenger counts said border crossing volumes through October fell roughly 31 percent year‑over‑year; applying Vermont tourism agency figures for Canadian visits and average overnight spending produced a quick estimate of nearly $70 million in lost overnight visitor spending from fewer Canadian visitors.

Cabette also confirmed that the forecast incorporates provider‑tax changes and that, under the assumptions used, the health‑care fund shows declines in later years as provider‑tax rates phase down. He cautioned that the projections reflect the assumed phasing and that staff follow‑up could provide more granular, Vermont‑specific fiscal impacts.

On labor markets and wages, Cabette said Vermont’s employment picture remains relatively favorable compared with much of the country, but real wage growth has been weak over the long run and affordability pressures persist for many households. Committee members pressed for Vermont‑specific data on lottery purchasers and lower‑income household impacts; Cabette said state‑specific series may be limited and offered to coordinate with joint fiscal staff.

The briefing produced no formal votes; committee members asked for follow‑up data on visitor spending and provider‑tax modeling.