Consultants tell Ogden board enrollment is declining overall but growth pockets tied to housing projects remain
January 16, 2026 | Ogden City School District, School Boards, Utah
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A consulting team from MGT presented a data-driven 10-year enrollment forecast to the Ogden City School District board, warning that resident birth counts and kindergarten cohorts have declined and that the district projects an overall enrollment dip in the near term.
"We are looking at a trend of declining births," presenter Marcy Horner told the board while reviewing geocoded student data, mobility and student-yield factors. The presentation combined student records, attendance-area matrices, and local housing inventories to estimate future resident and enrolled utilization by school.
Key findings presented by MGT included: 29 residential projects totaling roughly 2,200 housing units were included in the forecast, 63% of those units are apartments, and the district’s measured student-yield factor for apartments is low (about 0.06, or six students per 100 apartment units). The forecast maps showed pockets of growth in elementary attendance areas such as Newbridge and Polk, and declines in most other elementary and junior-high areas.
MGT illustrated differences between "resident utilization" (the percentage of residents in an attendance area assigned to a school) and "enrolled utilization" (the percentage of students actually attending that building) and noted substantial transfer patterns—for example, East Ridge demonstrates higher enrolled utilization because of open-enrollment and DLI program transfers. The consultant emphasized it can take several years for enrollment to settle after boundary changes.
District staff announced that MGT will begin a separate school capacity study for secondary schools to inform decisions about Highland and Mount Ogden facilities. Board members asked clarifying questions about mobility, grade-distribution effects and access to analytic tools used for previous boundary work.
The presentation did not produce an immediate vote; board members instructed staff to follow up with MGT on tools, deeper dives by attendance area and the upcoming capacity study timeline.
The forecast provides the district with a basis for forthcoming decisions on boundaries, facility utilization and long-range capital planning.
"We are looking at a trend of declining births," presenter Marcy Horner told the board while reviewing geocoded student data, mobility and student-yield factors. The presentation combined student records, attendance-area matrices, and local housing inventories to estimate future resident and enrolled utilization by school.
Key findings presented by MGT included: 29 residential projects totaling roughly 2,200 housing units were included in the forecast, 63% of those units are apartments, and the district’s measured student-yield factor for apartments is low (about 0.06, or six students per 100 apartment units). The forecast maps showed pockets of growth in elementary attendance areas such as Newbridge and Polk, and declines in most other elementary and junior-high areas.
MGT illustrated differences between "resident utilization" (the percentage of residents in an attendance area assigned to a school) and "enrolled utilization" (the percentage of students actually attending that building) and noted substantial transfer patterns—for example, East Ridge demonstrates higher enrolled utilization because of open-enrollment and DLI program transfers. The consultant emphasized it can take several years for enrollment to settle after boundary changes.
District staff announced that MGT will begin a separate school capacity study for secondary schools to inform decisions about Highland and Mount Ogden facilities. Board members asked clarifying questions about mobility, grade-distribution effects and access to analytic tools used for previous boundary work.
The presentation did not produce an immediate vote; board members instructed staff to follow up with MGT on tools, deeper dives by attendance area and the upcoming capacity study timeline.
The forecast provides the district with a basis for forthcoming decisions on boundaries, facility utilization and long-range capital planning.
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