Demographer tells South Madison board that enrollment changes hinge on housing, transfers and age structure

Dr. McKibben told the South Madison board on Jan. 8 that the district’s near-term enrollment outlook depends less on past enrollment trends and more on population dynamics: mortgage rates, housing availability and the district’s age structure.

“These are forecasts, not projections,” Dr. McKibben said, framing the presentation around four key assumptions: mortgage-rate trajectories, interdistrict transfers and vouchers, new housing units (he used 50 new units per year in his baseline), and the treatment of group-quarters populations in the census counts. He noted the district’s historical net transfer advantage and warned that existing-home sales and household-size changes are major drivers of future enrollment.

Using cohort and population-pyramid analysis, McKibben described an "hourglass" age distribution common in suburban districts, with smaller younger adult cohorts behind currently large elementary cohorts. His forecast showed modest total K–12 increases (roughly 10 students per year on average under the stated assumptions) through 2032, with variability driven by cohort size and migration. He emphasized sensitivity: if mortgage rates or housing sales diverge from assumptions, enrollment outcomes could change materially.

Board members asked clarifying questions about cohort timing and the projected high-school class sizes in the mid-2030s; McKibben explained that large graduating classes in the mid-2030s create a temporary decline in the district’s high-school enrollment as the cohort cycles through.

McKibben said he will make the full report available on the district website under 'SMCSC growth' and recommended using the report as a planning tool rather than a definitive projection.

The board thanked him for the presentation and did not take action; Superintendent Dr. Hall said the full report would be posted for public review.