Centennial SD projects $82M in general-fund revenue, warns of multimillion-dollar shortfall amid enrollment declines

A district finance presenter told the Centennial School District board on Dec. 10 that fall enrollment and funding trends point to a potential multimillion-dollar shortfall.

The presentation said district enrollment was 5,455 for the current year, with K–5 largely stable, grades 6–8 down by 73 students year over year, and a small increase at the high school level. The presenter described how fewer outplacements mean more students served in-district, which is positive for services, but overall headcount changes affect state funding.

The district reported general-fund revenue of approximately $82,000,000 and current-year expense forecasts of $84–$85 million, producing an estimated single-year gap in the $2,000,000 to $3,500,000 range. The presenter said the adopted budget had assumed a $2 million planned spend down and that current bargaining activity (including proposals exceeding previously budgeted 4% increases and added licensed and special-education positions) could raise costs.

Risk factors outlined included possible governor-requested reductions across state departments (2.5%–5%), federally driven uncertainties that have paused or delayed reimbursements in recent years, sunset of ESSER funds, and substantial cuts to Student Success Act targeted grants mentioned as exceeding 50% reductions. The district said it is in early forecasting stages for the 2026–27 biennium and that uncertainties around state formula changes, ADM weighting and high-cost disability caps complicate projections.

Board members discussed state funding formulas, additional weights for students in poverty and special-needs categories, and asked for clarification about whether the newly reported $3.5 million figure was additional to or inclusive of earlier projected deficits; the presenter clarified that the range reflects an increase from the $2 million that had been budgeted to as high as $3.5 million due to current factors.

The presenter said the district plans to continue monitoring enrollment, advocacy around funding formula adjustments and to return to the board as projections firm up. Lisa Merrick, the district’s East County government affairs administrator, was scheduled to brief the board in January on legislative matters and formula weighting.