Superintendent: NESDAC projections off by dozens; committee warned against relying solely on model for staffing

The superintendent presented the district's NESDAC enrollment report and told the School Committee the decline in anticipated enrollment has slowed and is flattening. He said the district has a full report available to the public and pointed committee members to a snapshot "on page 4" for tracking cohort trends.

The superintendent cautioned that NESDAC projections are not infallible. He noted that last year the model projected 2,144 students but the district's enrolled count was 2,186 — a difference of 42 students — and outlined projected year-over-year changes that showed larger discrepancies in some upcoming years. "When these reports are wrong or incorrect or when we don't meet the expectation and we are cutting staff based off of NESDAC numbers, we put ourselves in quite a predicament," he told the committee.

Committee members asked for clarification about what NESDAC counts. The superintendent said the model shows anticipated seats in district schools and does not include incoming CTE students, privately enrolled students the district serves, outplaced students, or students enrolled in charter or state schools through school choice. That means staffing and budget forecasts that depend solely on NESDAC could miss students for whom the district must provide services.

The superintendent said he would make the full report available to the community and follow up on questions; committee members urged him to improve public-facing slides and data visualizations so the community can weigh tradeoffs during budget season.

The committee did not take separate action on the enrollment report beyond accepting the superintendent's report by motion earlier in the meeting. The superintendent said he will provide the dataset and further analysis to the committee for budget planning.