TACIR staff present models for judicial redistricting and urge updated caseload studies before policy moves

Leah Eldridge and research manager Bob Morio briefed the Tennessee Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations on judicial redistricting background and scenario analysis.

Eldridge summarized prior studies and statutory direction, noting Tennessee currently has 32 judicial districts with variation in county composition and court types. She described prior recommendations dating to the 1990s and the 2019 advisory task force that largely concluded there was no statewide need to redraw districts except for a localized realignment involving Hickman, Lewis and Perry counties. Eldridge said 2022 legislation requires an advisory task force to publish a proposed statewide redistricting plan and related analysis by Jan. 1, 2027.

Morio described staff’s simple statistical approach: because current weighted‑caseload data were unavailable at the county level, staff used district‑level correlations from 2017–2019 between weighted caseloads, unweighted filings and population, then applied those relationships to 2020–2022 county filing and population data to estimate each proposed district’s share of statewide workload and how 159 current judges might allocate under three consolidation proposals. He said the models suggest all three options reduce the number of districts and some administrative court costs but do not reliably reduce judicial workloads and could increase travel burdens in larger districts. “Again, these are just estimates that we could calculate using basic available data,” Morio said.

Why it matters: redistricting affects judicial access, travel times, and administrative resources and requires reliable workload measures. Staff cautioned the commission that case‑weighting studies for judges, district attorneys and public defenders have not been updated since before or during the pandemic and that General Sessions data quality poses limitations on county‑level analysis.

Members asked whether staff recommended redistricting. Eldridge and Morio declined to make a recommendation without current county‑level weighted caseload data and suggested updating weighted caseload studies and waiting for the comptroller’s forthcoming report to inform any formal plan. Representatives and senators raised specific data questions (for example, whether Shelby County reporting affected past weighted caseload results) and emphasized that updated, county‑level inputs are necessary before policy changes.

What’s next: staff pointed to the statutory timeline that calls for an advisory task force and urged the commission to coordinate with the comptroller’s upcoming work; no vote or formal policy action took place at the meeting.