University System enrollment shows small overall gain but regional campuses face steep declines, committee told

A subcommittee hearing on higher education data on [date not specified] opened with an overview of University System of Maryland enrollment trends and the budgetary implications for regional campuses. Speaker 2 told the Education, Business and Administration Subcommittee that overall undergraduate enrollment rose 3.2% between fall 2022 and fall 2023 but that, when excluding Global Campus, enrollment fell 0.1%.

"Overall, enrollment grew 3.2%," Speaker 2 said, adding that excluding the Global Campus changes the picture. The presenter identified five institutions with enrollment increases and said the University of Maryland Eastern Shore (UMES) saw the highest rate of growth, 15.7% (about 300 students). The transcript also contains an unclear line about a large decrease rendered as "At 344,000 had the largest decrease"; the presenter did not specify which institution that figure referred to.

The presenter emphasized pandemic-era effects when reviewing Exhibit 3, which used fall 2019 as a baseline. "So since 2019, enrollment has declined 2.1%. However, when excluding Global Campus, it fell by 8.6%," Speaker 2 said, and noted that regional institutions experienced double-digit declines, including drops exceeding 24% at the University of Baltimore, Frostburg and Coppin. Speaker 2 warned those declines raise concerns about the financial stability of affected campuses.

Committee members asked the chancellor to comment on drivers of the regional declines, obstacles to expanding access and how increased competition for a smaller pool of students is affecting institutional finances. The committee also asked the chancellor to describe efforts to reach out to students who stopped out; Speaker 2 cited a National Student Clearinghouse finding that students who stopped out since 2020 are among those most likely to return.

Retention and degree-production measures were mixed. Speaker 2 said freshman nonreturn rates fell from 30.2% in 2019 to 23% in 2023 and that more than 95,000 students have not returned to the same institution since 2019, presenting opportunities for targeted re-enrollment outreach. On second-year retention, the presenter said the pandemic had its greatest effect on the 2022 cohort but that the 2023 cohort showed improvement at most campuses except Frostburg and Eastern Shore. Third-year retention was described as a "mixed bag," with expectations that improved second-year rates could lift third-year outcomes for the 2023 cohort.

The presenter noted a discrepancy between enrollment projections used by the Maryland Higher Education Commission (MHEC) and the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) figures in the governor's budget books. Speaker 2 said MHEC's projections are roughly 7% higher than the budget-book numbers and that using those higher projections has reduced aid per full-time student at four-year campuses, leaving the state funding formulas underfunded relative to the projections included in the budget books.

Degree conferrals peaked in 2022 and then decreased by 5% in 2023, Speaker 2 said. Excluding Global Campus, degree awards fell 9.6% since 2022 to just over 19,000 degrees, the fewest since 2012. The presenter began to introduce workforce-related exhibits but the transcript ends before those materials are discussed in detail.

The committee’s immediate takeaway was a request for chancellor comment and follow-up information on: (1) the drivers of sharp regional enrollment declines; (2) specific outreach plans and timelines to re-engage students who stopped out; and (3) clarification on how MHEC and DBM projection differences affect aid-per-student calculations and the resulting budget shortfalls. The hearing record shows discussion and requests for follow-up but no formal votes or policy actions in the provided transcript.